HELP save our country and our economy by contacting your MP, The OBR and the Chancellor and demanding action…
- Over 90% of immigrants consume thousands more in public services than they pay in.
- That means every year of mass migration is adding almost 10% to our long-term debt/GDP.
- This explosion will get bigger under Labour, as chain migration booms.
- Economically, this is unsustainable. Mass migration will bankrupt the entire country by 2030, leading to a Greek-style crash, with unpaid salaries, defaulting debt and mass unemployment.
- For years, the OBR has been booking all the benefits of mass migration and none of the costs. It is time to demand they do their job properly and stop ignoring the elephant in the room.
- You can help save our country and our economy by contacting your MP, The OBR and the Chancellor and demanding action.
What you can do NOW:
Join the People’s Revolt and…
- Write to your MP: WriteToThem – Email your Councillor, MP, MSP, MS, MLA or London Assembly Member for free
- Write to the OBR: feedback@obr.uk
- Write to the Chancellor: CEU.Enquiries@hmtreasury.gov.uk
Link the following article and demand:
- The OBR immediately creates a new forecasting model for immigration and emigration, showing the net costs or contributions covering all the different cohorts and nationalities of immigrants and emigrant. Those models must include all lifetime public service costs, pensions & benefits, net zero, infrastructure, voluntary services and housing.
- A full inquiry into why the supposedly independent OBR has been booking all the economic contributions of immigration while ignoring trillions in costs, in spite of repeated warnings.
- Rachel Reeves must postpone her budget and related forecasts until we have accurate modelling on the long-term costs and contributions of all immigrants and emigrants.
- Demand the government freeze all visas, settlement and citizenship grants longer than three years, until we have a full understanding of the long-term costs and financial sustainability of mass immigration.
While Labour’s tax and spend plans have already been exposed, Chancellor Rachel Reeves remains committed to following the OBR’s forecasts and guidance on sustainable spending.
Historically, the OBR’s forecasts have proven remarkably poor. And those forecasts are about to get much worse thanks to mass migration.
In spite of repeated warnings, the OBR has been wilfully blind on the true costs of mass migration. According to their modelling, all immigration is good, regardless of quality. In other words, if Richard Branson flees Britain while a boat load of ISIS terrorists land in Dover, that is good for the economy and good for public finances!
This is an absolute scandal, but the public are wising up to it, and fast. This year, the economic case for mass migration has been obliterated. Myself, Karl Williams, Connor Tomlinson and the OBR’s David Miles have all written comprehensive research proving beyond doubt that that mass migration is not only destroying British quality of life but making us financially poorer.
Since Brexit, the quality and economic contribution of the average arrival has collapsed. And the data is startling.
- Over 90% of immigrants are contributing less in taxes than they are consuming, with legal migrants taking at least£50bn more in public services than they put in. In some cases, a single migrant family can claim over £1m in free public services within five years.
- Incredibly, around two thirds of immigrants do not have to pay a penny in council taxes, even as our local authorities struggle with bankruptcy and social care costs.
- Of the 3.6m visas granted since 2021, less than 17% went to skilled workers. And for all the talk of saving the NHS, less than 3% of those visas went to doctors and nurses.
- In fact, we are now handing out more visas for Somali family members than we are to physicists, chemists and biologists from the entire world combined. This is in spite of the fact that Somali immigrants are eight times more likely to be convicted of serious crimes than the native population!
Once you start breaking down immigration by type and nationality, the costs are HUGE. For example, the estimated net lifetime costs of a channel migrant are £400k each. if you assume fifty-thousand arrivals a year, that’s an extra £20bn to be added to long-term government debt every single year of arrivals, offset by extra GDP (assume a generous £20k a year per capita contribution) of just £1bn. That’s right, debt up by £20bn and GDP up by just £1bn, every year, forever.
Unfortunately, those terrifying economics apply to well over 90% of immigrants turning up legally as well as illegally. Thanks to low migrant quality, most will claim hundreds of thousands more than they put in over their lifetimes.
That means our Government Debt to GDP will explode. I tried some very rough calculations for the main migrant cohorts and came up with a net lifetime cost to the tax payer of £80-110bn for each year of arrivals, offset by GDP growth of just £20-30bn (and that is being very generous). Without massive public spending cuts or tax hikes (not in OBR forecasts) debt Debt/GDP explodes by an extra 3-4% every year, and that is on top of our existing debt and deficits.
But it gets much worse. Because this modelling does not take account of the new infrastructure investment we need to make for new arrivals and Net zero costs, which Labour is determined to press on with. Bear in mind that the latter will cost an estimated £50k-300k per household. Include these in the forecasts and annual migration is adding at least £200bn a year to long term debt and 20-30bn to GDP – that’s an annual extra 7% to long term debt/gdp every year!
And it gets worse still. Because so far I have only dealt with immigration, not emigration. While immigrants appear to be low value net consumers (adding to our debt load), emigrants tend to be highly skilled and productive contributors. The UK is now the OECD’s biggest exporter of doctors. And the UK has been making headlines as it is forecast to lose more millionaires than anywhere else on earth. Only a few weeks in and already the brain drain is accelerating under labour. Given that the richest 1% pay 30% of income tax, even just a few thousand emigrating will explode our debt/GDP forecasts even more.
Thus, if the OBR were to fully account for the lifetime costs of our migration policies, it would need to add 8-10% to annual debt/GDP every year. That adds up to trillions of pounds in debt.
As if all this was not bad enough, unless we act now, we are about to experience an unprecedented explosion in low quality Mass migration from the developing world that will literally bankrupt us. Low quality mass migration took off in 2021. That means from 2026, over five million immigrants could become eligible for citizenship. If you think immigration is trouble now, our problems are about to get much, much bigger.
Studies have found that when migrants are granted citizenship or leave to remain, they suddenly get more expensive. A keen work ethic is replaced by an equally keen interest in the benefits system. Moreover, settlement turns migration from a dependency ratio solution to a demographic time bomb: proffering yet more people who will need decades of pensions and healthcare in future. That latter point is wholly underappreciated. Immigration can only offset an ageing population if the migrants themselves stay only as long as they are economically active. To maintain a healthy, productive and flexible labour force, migrant workers have to come and go.
But worst of all, once migrants gain citizenship, they begin importing dozens of dependents – what is known as ‘chain migration.’ By definition, these dependents will make little or no economic contribution, but will be free to gorge on the all-you-can-eat buffet of taxpayer funded public services, benefits, social housing, education, charities and of course healthcare. With millions flooding in and no commensurate economic or social contribution, our government and society will inevitably collapse.
Scandalously, the OBR does not take account of any of this in its forecasts. They just assume population growth is good regardless of quality or demographic changes. This is in spite of their leading forecaster, David Miles, producing extensive academic research to the contrary.
By ignoring the quality of mass migration and the imminent surge heading our way, the OBR’s forecasts are out by trillions. Taking account of this adds a cumulative 10% to long term debt to GDP for every year into the future!
That means the public finances WILL collapse within five to seven years maximum. Given Labour’s profligate spending and union wage deals, it could be even sooner.
Thanks to mass migration and dumb economic forecasts, we are heading for a Greek-style financial crisis by the end of the decade. If you own long-term government debt or National savings you should sell now, because they are not safe. Public sector salaries, wage deals and pensions may not get paid. All Labour’s promises on hospitals, police and teachers will be written off, and they will default on the state pension. All within five years.
By Andrew Hunt. Author Andrew Hunt graduated from Cambridge with a Law degree in 2003. He worked in TV production before moving into finance. It was here that he became fascinated by how personal investors and small companies could turn negligible resources into enormous fortunes. Applying the same mindset and principles, Hunt was able to retire in his thirties. He now invests in interesting projects which aim to make the world a better place and runs a radical centre-right environmental think tank. He is also the author of Better Value Investing.
