Leading economist Julian Jessop, quoted in the Independent’s Brexit report, slams it as “an incoherent jumble of bad takes which have already been debunked many times before.”
In its special report yesterday, The Independent rolled out yet another rehash of the doom-laden, glass-half-empty narrative it claims reveals the “true cost of Brexit.”
Five years since Britain bravely stepped out of the EU’s shadow, this familiar tale of woe reads less like a thoughtful critique and more like a stubborn refusal to move on.
The Independent’s relentless focus on cherry-picked negatives, devoid of balance or context, does little to illuminate and everything to divide. The great irony here is that their own source, leading economist Julian Jessop, has called out their flawed narrative as “an incoherent jumble of bad Brexit takes.” Let’s break it down.
The Independent’s Flawed Claims
The Independent claims that Brexit has cost the UK £100 billion annually, sent trade plummeting by 15 percent, and driven migration to record highs. But these are tired tropes, built on shaky foundations that crumble under scrutiny.
The £100 Billion Myth
This oft-repeated figure stems from “doppelganger” models comparing post-Brexit Britain to a fictional hybrid of economies that supposedly represent what the UK might have been like had it remained in the EU. These models completely disregard global game-changers like the pandemic and the energy crisis, which have impacted all economies differently.
As Julian Jessop rightly points out, when more accurate comparisons are used, the so-called “Brexit gap” shrinks dramatically. But why let facts get in the way of a good scare story?
Trade Barriers and Assumptions
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assumes that Brexit will lead to a long-term 15 percent drop in trade. The key word here is “assumes.” Actual data paints a far less catastrophic picture. Exports to non-EU countries are thriving, and imports haven’t collapsed as predicted. The supposed barriers are more paper tiger than existential threat.
The Mischaracterised ‘Divorce Bill’
The Independent ominously references the Brexit “divorce bill,” as if it were an unexpected cost. In truth, this was money the UK would have paid to Brussels had we remained. What’s more, the final sum has turned out to be lower than originally forecasted. Hardly the catastrophe they’d have us believe.
The Hypocrisy of Project Fear
Let’s rewind to the Brexit referendum. Remember the dire warnings? Banks fleeing en masse. A crippled dairy industry. Shortages of Mars bars, medicines, wine and even body bags. None of it came true.
And yet, the Remainer industrial complex persists. Instead of acknowledging Brexit’s successes—like trade deals with Australia, Japan, and the CPTPP, or our newfound regulatory autonomy—they cling to outdated doomsday predictions. It’s as if they’ve got the needle stuck on “Project Fear” and can’t bear to lift it.
Labour’s Convenient Amnesia
Now let’s talk about Labour, whose selective memory is nothing short of spectacular. They love to blame Brexit for everything from the cost-of-living crisis to staffing shortages. But where were they when unions held the country hostage during Covid? When they demanded harsher lockdowns, vilified those who championed freedom, and weaponised the media to push their agenda?
Since coming to power in 2024, Labour has done nothing to alleviate the challenges they now attribute to Brexit. Instead, they’ve raised taxes, burdened businesses, and stoked uncertainty. Do they secretly wish to kneecap the British economy just so they can go cap in hand back to Brussels? One has to wonder.
A Call for Honest Debate
If Brexit is to be scrutinised—and it should be—let’s do it with intellectual honesty. A balanced debate would consider short-term costs alongside long-term gains. It would recognise that Brexit isn’t a magic wand or a poison pill; it’s a framework, and its success depends on how we choose to wield it.
The Independent’s latest effort, however, is not honest journalism. It cherry-picks data, misrepresents facts, and clings to a narrative that the British people decisively rejected in 2016.
Time to Move Forward
Global challenges are real, but so are its opportunities. Britain has secured new trade deals, redefined its immigration policies, and reclaimed its regulatory sovereignty. Yes, challenges remain, but these are not unique to the UK.
It’s time for the media to let go of its Project Fear obsession and focus on solutions. Let’s maximise Brexit’s potential, build a competitive economy, and chart a bold course for the future.
As for The Independent, perhaps it should trade its doom-laden headlines for a touch of optimism—or at least a modicum of balance. Britain deserves better than this tired Remainer spin. We deserve facts, not fear.
Claire Bullivant
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