Analysis estimates that offenders released early under the scheme, including sex offenders, robbers and arsonists, could go on to commit 90,000 further offences by 2029.
Prisons in England and Wales risk running out of space again despite Labour’s early release programme, after a record wave of offenders were sent back to jail for breaching their licence conditions, according to reporting by The Telegraph‘s Home Affairs Editor Charles Hymas.
A record number of recalls
Martin Jones, HM Chief Inspector of Probation, has warned ministers that the capacity freed up by early release risks being “dissipated” by the sheer volume of reoffenders and licence-breachers being recalled to custody, The Telegraphreported. Official Ministry of Justice figures cited in the report put the number of recalls over the past 12 months at 51,419 — the highest total on record, and roughly double the level seen before the first emergency early release scheme was introduced by the last Conservative government in 2023.
That figure is corroborated by separate MoJ data covering the year to March 2026, which shows recalls rose 28 per cent year-on-year, from 40,259 to 51,419. One in seven prisoners in the estate is now there on recall. In the most recent quarter for which full data exists, the number of offenders recalled to prison overtook the number being released for the first time on record.
Overcrowding pressure persists
The recall crisis comes despite the release of roughly 70,000 offenders early since Labour’s scheme began. Even so, prisons remain close to bursting: as of late July, the estate held some 86,267 people, leaving it about 97 per cent full. Ministry officials have reportedly warned that prisons could run out of space entirely by November if the early release scheme were abandoned.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, writing in The Telegraph last week, said he had gone to “the very limits” of what was possible by carving out roughly 1,000 rapists, child sex offenders and groomers from early release — a change that trimmed the number of places freed up over the next ten months from around 6,000 to about 5,000. The revised scheme, under the Sentencing Act 2026, is now due to begin on 1 October, having been pushed back from an earlier September start date to give probation services more time to prepare.
Political pressure over Pc Harper’s killers
Mr Burnham is facing renewed pressure over the case of Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, two of the men convicted in the killing of Pc Andrew Harper, who died in August 2019 after being dragged behind a car for more than a mile while investigating the theft of a quad bike in Berkshire. Both remain potentially eligible for early release under the scheme. According to The Telegraph, government lawyers have warned ministers that excluding the pair specifically — while leaving nearly 500 other manslaughter convicts eligible — would expose the government to legal challenge.
Separately, Conservative-commissioned analysis reported in the Daily Mail and cited by The Telegraph estimated that offenders released early under the scheme, including sex offenders, robbers and arsonists, could go on to commit close to 90,000 further offences by 2029.
Probation under strain
Mr Jones told ministers that better preparation and community support for released offenders was essential to prevent the recall problem from undermining the scheme, and said probation staff needed “sufficient time” to manage the process safely. Cassia Rowland of the Institute for Government think tank has separately noted that most recalls stem from breaches of licence conditions — such as missed appointments — rather than fresh offending, and has argued the pace of early release has made it harder for probation services to prepare offenders properly for life outside.
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said protecting the public remained the government’s “top priority,” pointing to a £700 million investment in probation and the recruitment of 1,389 trainee probation officers last year against a target of 1,300.
Reporting credit: Charles Hymas, The Telegraph. Additional figures drawn from Ministry of Justice data, the Institute for Government and BBC News.
Image: For illustration purposes only.
