Conservative party members are on strike and 57% won’t vote Tory with Rishi as leader

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A new Conservative Post survey of registered party members has revealed over half (57%) won’t vote for the Conservative party if Rishi Sunak remains as leader.

2,086 people who were verified by CCHQ as being Conservative party members in 2022 answered a survey that was carried out across the UK from the 29th to 31st January 2024.

The survey, almost three times bigger than the Conservative Home poll carried out each month which shows the most popular members of the Cabinet, has highlighted huge discontent in parts of the party as well as identifying who the Conservative Members want as leader.

When members were asked if they would vote Conservative with the following people as leader, Boris Johnson came top with 85.37 percent followed by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on 69.51 percent and Suella Braverman on 65.38 percent. Only 23.63% of members said they will vote Conservative at the next General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as leader.

71.86% of members said Labour would be most scared of facing Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a General Election. Photo credit: UK Gov. Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 DEED

Over 90% of members have said they’ve also laid up their tools and won’t be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the election if Mr Sunak remains as Prime Minister.

If an election was called today 50.48% of the members said they would vote for Reform UK and 15.95% of members said they have already joined the Richard Tice party.

Almost 70% of Conservative members said they would you support getting a new leader before the next General Election if it could be done quickly and over 70% of members said this would be the best chance of winning the next election and stopping Keir Starmer getting into Number 10.

15.95% of members said they have already joined Reform UK. Richard Tice, Leader of Reform UK. Photo: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

Other key findings show 90% of members think the Conservative Party is not currently conservative enough and 62% of members think the top priority for the government over the next 12 months should be reducing illegal immigration. 92% of the members say the party has been hijacked by non-conservatives.

Inspired to run the poll, Conservative Post editor Claire Bullivant said:

“A few weeks ago I was asked to go campaigning in Worcestershire. I was one of only two who turned up. Not so long ago come rain or shine, there would have been the equivalent of at least a few football teams giving up their Sunday morning to pound the pavements with me. Not anymore.

“I knew support for the party was waning, I hear it every day from my readers of the Conservative Post. But I made some calls and was astonished so many of the usual faces I see running events for my local association, stuffing envelopes, delivering leaflets, the really dedicated members that lived and breathed the party, had also laid down their tools. One who had supported the party for over 60 years told me: ‘They expect my time, effort and money but not my opinions. I’m not helping anymore. I’ve had enough.’

“I reached out to various Association Chairmen across the country and they all painted the same bleak picture. Members and local activists, the men and women who do so much to win us local and national elections, are on strike.

“I believe, outside of CCHQ, the Conservative Post holds the largest database of Conservative Party members, so I decided to run this survey. It was open only to Conservative Party members (who were verified by CCHQ in November 2022) and was overseen by a very well-respected data analysist called Mike Rouse at Bluetorch Consulting who has run many data collection processes for the party. The results are fair, honest and speak for themselves.

“I’m an eternal optimist and have tremendous faith in our party and the Conservative MPs to do the right thing. We need to win this next election. Just as the rest of the world is turning its back on socialism and moving towards the right, we don’t want to be stuck with socialists in power for the next five years here in the UK. We’re in the midst of an almighty storm. Let’s send out the lifeboats and bring the members back. It’s time to become proper conservatives again to save our party and our country.

“But to do that, members are clear, we need a new leader.”

The Findings:

As things stand will you vote Conservative at the next General Election with Rishi Sunak as leader?

No57.43%
Yes23.63%
Don’t know18.94%

Have you ever campaigned for the Conservative Party? 

(Campaigning was defined in the survey as “knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, raising funds, helping out on polling day, etc.”)

No62.97%
Yes37.03%

Will you be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister?

No90.10%
Yes9.90%

Would you campaign for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if there was a new leader with more conservative values?

Yes40.38%
Don’t know36.38%
No23.24%

If a new leader could be chosen quickly (within 7 days), would you support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election?

Yes68.95%
Don’t know15.89%
No15.17%

Do you think the Conservative Party is currently conservative enough?

No90.00%
Yes5.84%
Don’t know4.15%

Have you joined the Reform Party?

No42.07%
Considering41.98%
Yes15.95%

Do you think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader?

Yes71.74%
No14.16%
Don’t know14.11%

If a general election were called TODAY and you HAD to vote, which party would you vote for?

Reform UK50.48%
Conservative34.28%
Would not vote13.04%
Another party not listed0.77%
Liberal Democrat0.67%
Labour0.67%
Green0.10%

Table below shows how this is split by members who say they normally actively campaign for the Conservative Party and those that are members but don’t campaign. 

Party PreferenceNon-CampaignersCampaigners
Another party not listed0.69%0.91%
Conservative31.70%38.80%
Green0.08%0.13%
Labour0.84%0.39%
Liberal Democrat0.61%0.78%
Reform UK54.59%43.36%
Would not vote11.49%15.63%

Voting intentions by age group

Party PreferenceUnder 1818-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465 or AbovePrefer Not to Answer
Another party not listed0.000.006.670.001.231.580.400.00
Conservative36.6733.336.6735.5925.7724.6539.4435.48
Green0.000.000.000.000.000.200.080.00
Labour0.000.000.000.001.230.590.720.00
Liberal Democrat3.330.000.001.690.000.390.720.00
Reform UK40.0066.6786.6749.1555.8360.9545.7045.16
Would not vote20.000.000.0013.5615.9511.6412.9319.35

Voting intentions by region

UK RegionConLabLibGreenReformWould not voteOther
East Midlands28.80%1.05%54.97%15.18%0.00%
East of England37.22%0.45%51.12%10.31%0.90%
London30.34%0.69%55.86%11.72%1.38%
North East35.62%56.16%6.85%1.37%
North West29.70%0.99%0.99%52.97%15.35%0.00%
Northern Ireland25.00%75.00%25.00%
Scotland45.57%0.00%47.47%4.43%2.53%
South East36.54%1.92%0.24%51.44%9.62%0.24%
South West38.08%0.71%0.36%47.69%12.81%0.36%
Wales34.12%1.18%41.18%23.53%0.00%
West Midlands39.88%1.73%47.98%8.67%1.73%
Yorkshire and The Humber24.07%1.85%0.62%53.09%19.14%1.23%

Would you support a return of Nigel Farage to the Conservative Party?

Yes75.55%
Not sure13.57%
No10.88%

Which of the following do you think should be TOP priorities for the government over the next 12 months?

Not a priorityNeutral or unsurePriority
Reducing illegal immigration25581990
Tackling inflation1455521293
Reducing NHS waiting lists713671581
Tackling too much wokeness1111801747
Children’s safety online2386761063
National security221021934
Building new homes498800680
Ending public sector strikes2085291271
Education2077661014
Cutting taxes1975061315
Growing the economy362001793

How important are the following priorities for the government over the next 12 months? 

Reducing illegal immigrationPriority96.00%
Reducing illegal immigrationNeutral or unsure2.80%
Reducing illegal immigrationNot a priority1.21%
Tackling inflationPriority64.97%
Tackling inflationNeutral or unsure27.74%
Tackling inflationNot a priority7.29%
Reducing NHS waiting listsPriority78.31%
Reducing NHS waiting listsNeutral or unsure18.18%
Reducing NHS waiting listsNot a priority3.52%
Tackling too much wokenessPriority85.72%
Tackling too much wokenessNeutral or unsure8.83%
Tackling too much wokenessNot a priority5.45%
Children’s safety onlinePriority53.77%
Children’s safety onlineNeutral or unsure34.19%
Children’s safety onlineNot a priority12.04%
National securityPriority93.97%
National securityNeutral or unsure4.96%
National securityNot a priority1.07%
Building new homesNeutral or unsure40.44%
Building new homesPriority34.38%
Building new homesNot a priority25.18%
Ending public sector strikesPriority63.30%
Ending public sector strikesNeutral or unsure26.34%
Ending public sector strikesNot a priority10.36%
EducationPriority51.03%
EducationNeutral or unsure38.55%
EducationNot a priority10.42%
Cutting taxesPriority65.16%
Cutting taxesNeutral or unsure25.07%
Cutting taxesNot a priority9.76%
Growing the economyPriority88.37%
Growing the economyNeutral or unsure9.86%
Growing the economyNot a priority1.77%

Which of these priorities would be your TOP priority?

Reducing illegal immigration68.02%
Growing the economy8.92%
National security8.25%
Cutting taxes4.31%
Reducing NHS waiting lists3.26%
Tackling too much wokeness3.21%
Tackling inflation1.58%
Ending public sector strikes0.81%
Building new homes0.72%
Reducing carbon emissions0.38%
Education0.38%
Children’s safety online0.14%

Would you vote Conservative at the next General Election with the following people as leader?

No, I would notYes, I would
Liz Truss997899
Boris Johnson2501781
David Cameron1577292
Suella Braverman5621364
Priti Patel867988
Kemi Badenoch967905
Jacob Rees-Mogg4791450
James Cleverly1419395
Penny Mordaunt995889
Robert Jenrick1175660

The following percentage of members say they would vote Conservative at the next General Election if the following was made leader:

Boris Johnson85.37%
Jacob Rees-Mogg69.51%
Suella Braverman65.38%
Priti Patel47.36%
Kemi Badenoch43.38%
Liz Truss43.09%
Penny Mordaunt42.61%
Robert Jenrick31.63%
James Cleverly18.93%
David Cameron13.99%

If the Conservative Party were to change leader now, which of the following would you support being Prime Minister to lead us into the next General Election? (Members were asked to choose their top 3). They received the following number of votes:

Liz Truss301
Boris Johnson1419
David Cameron100
Suella Braverman891
Jacob Rees-Mogg721
James Cleverly75
Kemi Badenoch518
Penny Mordaunt520
Priti Patel286
Robert Jenrick220

Agee range on leader preference:

Key to the table: LT: Liz Truss, BJ: Boris Johnson, DC: David Cameron, SB: Suella Braverman, JRM: Jacob Rees-Mogg, JC: James Cleverly, KB: Kemi Badenoch, PM: Penny Mordaunt, PP: Priti Patel, RJ: Robert Jenrick 

Age RangeLTBJDCSBJRMJCKBPMPPRJ
Under 1811.6776.676.6726.6735.003.3316.6723.335.006.67
18-2433.3350.000.0066.6750.0016.6716.6716.6733.3316.67
25-3413.3360.006.6733.3366.670.0033.3320.0013.330.00
35-448.4771.196.7845.7628.816.7825.4235.5922.035.08
45-5421.4773.624.9153.3734.973.6822.7023.9322.7011.04
55-6416.7768.645.1346.5538.073.3523.0824.0615.5810.26
65 or Above13.0166.994.3440.2433.253.4526.1025.3811.5711.00
Prefer Not to Answer9.6854.849.6848.3919.356.4525.8112.9019.3516.13

Which Conservative leader do you think Labour would be most scared of facing in a General Election?

Boris Johnson71.86%
Suella Braverman7.33%
Kemi Badenoch6.62%
Penny Mordaunt5.51%
Other not listed2.68%
Jacob Rees-Mogg2.59%
Rishi Sunak1.01%
Liz Truss0.81%
David Cameron0.77%
Robert Jenrick0.48%
Priti Patel0.34%

Do you want to Bring Back Boris?

Yes73.20%
Don’t know15.24%
No11.55%

Do you believe the Conservative Party has been hijacked by non-Conservatives?

Yes92.09%
Don’t know5.03%
No2.88%

Fieldwork: 29/01/2024 to 31/01/2024 Valid Responses: 2086

6 COMMENTS

  1. Fascinating, and entirely in line with my own views. I too am a member who sadly was not one of those invited to participate in the survey. The party has wasted 14 years, squandered money on HS2 and raising aid to 7% while failing to train enough NHS staff so we are forced to rely on immigration. They are too ready to compromise and fail to see that there will always be objections to what you propose. I could go on and on

  2. Please can you tell us when this is going to go, for new leader.?
    Please don’t wait till the election. This is to much stress now.
    I’ve been writing how much you guys need this.
    I don’t want this to go on and on.
    We need action, and with a date.

    We see that most of your guys,are going to reform if Mr Sunak still here.

    Results are 20 per cent not GOOD!!
    Please some reply would be appreciated
    .
    Please reply urgently Thank you Lorna Murray

  3. It isn’t just about the leader. Too many liberals fill the seats where we need true conservative patriots who believe in an enterprising, self sufficient Britain. Better the party die than many sitting MP’s get re-elected

  4. I totally agree with the above, i’ve supported the Conservatives for over 20 years but i cancelled my membership the day Liz Truss was ousted and Rishi planted in, it was pointless being a paid member if our leader is going to be undemocratically elected the way he was.
    I also blame Rishi and his camp for the media frenzy which surrounded Boris, they did nothing to support our democratically elected PM and i wouldn’t be surprised if they assisted with the leaks, so i don’t trust him and his front bench and i never will.
    I am a member of Reform now and i agree with everything they say, i have no confidence in the current Conservative party and i will not vote for them even if to keep Labour out of Downing Steet at the next election.
    The current party does not deserve to be in office.

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