A new Conservative Post survey of registered party members has revealed over half (57%) won’t vote for the Conservative party if Rishi Sunak remains as leader.
2,086 people who were verified by CCHQ as being Conservative party members in 2022 answered a survey that was carried out across the UK from the 29th to 31st January 2024.
The survey, almost three times bigger than the Conservative Home poll carried out each month which shows the most popular members of the Cabinet, has highlighted huge discontent in parts of the party as well as identifying who the Conservative Members want as leader.
When members were asked if they would vote Conservative with the following people as leader, Boris Johnson came top with 85.37 percent followed by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on 69.51 percent and Suella Braverman on 65.38 percent. Only 23.63% of members said they will vote Conservative at the next General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as leader.
Over 90% of members have said they’ve also laid up their tools and won’t be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the election if Mr Sunak remains as Prime Minister.
If an election was called today 50.48% of the members said they would vote for Reform UK and 15.95% of members said they have already joined the Richard Tice party.
Almost 70% of Conservative members said they would you support getting a new leader before the next General Election if it could be done quickly and over 70% of members said this would be the best chance of winning the next election and stopping Keir Starmer getting into Number 10.
Other key findings show 90% of members think the Conservative Party is not currently conservative enough and 62% of members think the top priority for the government over the next 12 months should be reducing illegal immigration. 92% of the members say the party has been hijacked by non-conservatives.
Inspired to run the poll, Conservative Post editor Claire Bullivant said:
“A few weeks ago I was asked to go campaigning in Worcestershire. I was one of only two who turned up. Not so long ago come rain or shine, there would have been the equivalent of at least a few football teams giving up their Sunday morning to pound the pavements with me. Not anymore.
“I knew support for the party was waning, I hear it every day from my readers of the Conservative Post. But I made some calls and was astonished so many of the usual faces I see running events for my local association, stuffing envelopes, delivering leaflets, the really dedicated members that lived and breathed the party, had also laid down their tools. One who had supported the party for over 60 years told me: ‘They expect my time, effort and money but not my opinions. I’m not helping anymore. I’ve had enough.’
“I reached out to various Association Chairmen across the country and they all painted the same bleak picture. Members and local activists, the men and women who do so much to win us local and national elections, are on strike.
“I believe, outside of CCHQ, the Conservative Post holds the largest database of Conservative Party members, so I decided to run this survey. It was open only to Conservative Party members (who were verified by CCHQ in November 2022) and was overseen by a very well-respected data analysist called Mike Rouse at Bluetorch Consulting who has run many data collection processes for the party. The results are fair, honest and speak for themselves.
“I’m an eternal optimist and have tremendous faith in our party and the Conservative MPs to do the right thing. We need to win this next election. Just as the rest of the world is turning its back on socialism and moving towards the right, we don’t want to be stuck with socialists in power for the next five years here in the UK. We’re in the midst of an almighty storm. Let’s send out the lifeboats and bring the members back. It’s time to become proper conservatives again to save our party and our country.
“But to do that, members are clear, we need a new leader.”
The Findings:
As things stand will you vote Conservative at the next General Election with Rishi Sunak as leader?
| No | 57.43% |
| Yes | 23.63% |
| Don’t know | 18.94% |
Have you ever campaigned for the Conservative Party?
(Campaigning was defined in the survey as “knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, raising funds, helping out on polling day, etc.”)
| No | 62.97% |
| Yes | 37.03% |
Will you be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister?
| No | 90.10% |
| Yes | 9.90% |
Would you campaign for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if there was a new leader with more conservative values?
| Yes | 40.38% |
| Don’t know | 36.38% |
| No | 23.24% |
If a new leader could be chosen quickly (within 7 days), would you support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election?
| Yes | 68.95% |
| Don’t know | 15.89% |
| No | 15.17% |
Do you think the Conservative Party is currently conservative enough?
| No | 90.00% |
| Yes | 5.84% |
| Don’t know | 4.15% |
Have you joined the Reform Party?
| No | 42.07% |
| Considering | 41.98% |
| Yes | 15.95% |
Do you think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader?
| Yes | 71.74% |
| No | 14.16% |
| Don’t know | 14.11% |
If a general election were called TODAY and you HAD to vote, which party would you vote for?
| Reform UK | 50.48% |
| Conservative | 34.28% |
| Would not vote | 13.04% |
| Another party not listed | 0.77% |
| Liberal Democrat | 0.67% |
| Labour | 0.67% |
| Green | 0.10% |
Table below shows how this is split by members who say they normally actively campaign for the Conservative Party and those that are members but don’t campaign.
| Party Preference | Non-Campaigners | Campaigners |
| Another party not listed | 0.69% | 0.91% |
| Conservative | 31.70% | 38.80% |
| Green | 0.08% | 0.13% |
| Labour | 0.84% | 0.39% |
| Liberal Democrat | 0.61% | 0.78% |
| Reform UK | 54.59% | 43.36% |
| Would not vote | 11.49% | 15.63% |
Voting intentions by age group
| Party Preference | Under 18 | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65 or Above | Prefer Not to Answer |
| Another party not listed | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 1.58 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Conservative | 36.67 | 33.33 | 6.67 | 35.59 | 25.77 | 24.65 | 39.44 | 35.48 |
| Green | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Labour | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
| Liberal Democrat | 3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
| Reform UK | 40.00 | 66.67 | 86.67 | 49.15 | 55.83 | 60.95 | 45.70 | 45.16 |
| Would not vote | 20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.56 | 15.95 | 11.64 | 12.93 | 19.35 |
Voting intentions by region
| UK Region | Con | Lab | Lib | Green | Reform | Would not vote | Other |
| East Midlands | 28.80% | – | 1.05% | – | 54.97% | 15.18% | 0.00% |
| East of England | 37.22% | – | 0.45% | – | 51.12% | 10.31% | 0.90% |
| London | 30.34% | 0.69% | – | – | 55.86% | 11.72% | 1.38% |
| North East | 35.62% | – | – | – | 56.16% | 6.85% | 1.37% |
| North West | 29.70% | 0.99% | 0.99% | – | 52.97% | 15.35% | 0.00% |
| Northern Ireland | 25.00% | – | – | – | – | 75.00% | 25.00% |
| Scotland | 45.57% | 0.00% | – | – | 47.47% | 4.43% | 2.53% |
| South East | 36.54% | – | 1.92% | 0.24% | 51.44% | 9.62% | 0.24% |
| South West | 38.08% | 0.71% | – | 0.36% | 47.69% | 12.81% | 0.36% |
| Wales | 34.12% | 1.18% | – | – | 41.18% | 23.53% | 0.00% |
| West Midlands | 39.88% | – | 1.73% | – | 47.98% | 8.67% | 1.73% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 24.07% | 1.85% | 0.62% | – | 53.09% | 19.14% | 1.23% |
Would you support a return of Nigel Farage to the Conservative Party?
| Yes | 75.55% |
| Not sure | 13.57% |
| No | 10.88% |
Which of the following do you think should be TOP priorities for the government over the next 12 months?
| Not a priority | Neutral or unsure | Priority | |
| Reducing illegal immigration | 25 | 58 | 1990 |
| Tackling inflation | 145 | 552 | 1293 |
| Reducing NHS waiting lists | 71 | 367 | 1581 |
| Tackling too much wokeness | 111 | 180 | 1747 |
| Children’s safety online | 238 | 676 | 1063 |
| National security | 22 | 102 | 1934 |
| Building new homes | 498 | 800 | 680 |
| Ending public sector strikes | 208 | 529 | 1271 |
| Education | 207 | 766 | 1014 |
| Cutting taxes | 197 | 506 | 1315 |
| Growing the economy | 36 | 200 | 1793 |
How important are the following priorities for the government over the next 12 months?
| Reducing illegal immigration | Priority | 96.00% |
| Reducing illegal immigration | Neutral or unsure | 2.80% |
| Reducing illegal immigration | Not a priority | 1.21% |
| Tackling inflation | Priority | 64.97% |
| Tackling inflation | Neutral or unsure | 27.74% |
| Tackling inflation | Not a priority | 7.29% |
| Reducing NHS waiting lists | Priority | 78.31% |
| Reducing NHS waiting lists | Neutral or unsure | 18.18% |
| Reducing NHS waiting lists | Not a priority | 3.52% |
| Tackling too much wokeness | Priority | 85.72% |
| Tackling too much wokeness | Neutral or unsure | 8.83% |
| Tackling too much wokeness | Not a priority | 5.45% |
| Children’s safety online | Priority | 53.77% |
| Children’s safety online | Neutral or unsure | 34.19% |
| Children’s safety online | Not a priority | 12.04% |
| National security | Priority | 93.97% |
| National security | Neutral or unsure | 4.96% |
| National security | Not a priority | 1.07% |
| Building new homes | Neutral or unsure | 40.44% |
| Building new homes | Priority | 34.38% |
| Building new homes | Not a priority | 25.18% |
| Ending public sector strikes | Priority | 63.30% |
| Ending public sector strikes | Neutral or unsure | 26.34% |
| Ending public sector strikes | Not a priority | 10.36% |
| Education | Priority | 51.03% |
| Education | Neutral or unsure | 38.55% |
| Education | Not a priority | 10.42% |
| Cutting taxes | Priority | 65.16% |
| Cutting taxes | Neutral or unsure | 25.07% |
| Cutting taxes | Not a priority | 9.76% |
| Growing the economy | Priority | 88.37% |
| Growing the economy | Neutral or unsure | 9.86% |
| Growing the economy | Not a priority | 1.77% |
Which of these priorities would be your TOP priority?
| Reducing illegal immigration | 68.02% |
| Growing the economy | 8.92% |
| National security | 8.25% |
| Cutting taxes | 4.31% |
| Reducing NHS waiting lists | 3.26% |
| Tackling too much wokeness | 3.21% |
| Tackling inflation | 1.58% |
| Ending public sector strikes | 0.81% |
| Building new homes | 0.72% |
| Reducing carbon emissions | 0.38% |
| Education | 0.38% |
| Children’s safety online | 0.14% |
Would you vote Conservative at the next General Election with the following people as leader?
| No, I would not | Yes, I would | |
| Liz Truss | 997 | 899 |
| Boris Johnson | 250 | 1781 |
| David Cameron | 1577 | 292 |
| Suella Braverman | 562 | 1364 |
| Priti Patel | 867 | 988 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 967 | 905 |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 479 | 1450 |
| James Cleverly | 1419 | 395 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 995 | 889 |
| Robert Jenrick | 1175 | 660 |
The following percentage of members say they would vote Conservative at the next General Election if the following was made leader:
| Boris Johnson | 85.37% |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 69.51% |
| Suella Braverman | 65.38% |
| Priti Patel | 47.36% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 43.38% |
| Liz Truss | 43.09% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 42.61% |
| Robert Jenrick | 31.63% |
| James Cleverly | 18.93% |
| David Cameron | 13.99% |
If the Conservative Party were to change leader now, which of the following would you support being Prime Minister to lead us into the next General Election? (Members were asked to choose their top 3). They received the following number of votes:
| Liz Truss | 301 |
| Boris Johnson | 1419 |
| David Cameron | 100 |
| Suella Braverman | 891 |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 721 |
| James Cleverly | 75 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 518 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 520 |
| Priti Patel | 286 |
| Robert Jenrick | 220 |
Agee range on leader preference:
Key to the table: LT: Liz Truss, BJ: Boris Johnson, DC: David Cameron, SB: Suella Braverman, JRM: Jacob Rees-Mogg, JC: James Cleverly, KB: Kemi Badenoch, PM: Penny Mordaunt, PP: Priti Patel, RJ: Robert Jenrick
| Age Range | LT | BJ | DC | SB | JRM | JC | KB | PM | PP | RJ |
| Under 18 | 11.67 | 76.67 | 6.67 | 26.67 | 35.00 | 3.33 | 16.67 | 23.33 | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| 18-24 | 33.33 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | 50.00 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 33.33 | 16.67 |
| 25-34 | 13.33 | 60.00 | 6.67 | 33.33 | 66.67 | 0.00 | 33.33 | 20.00 | 13.33 | 0.00 |
| 35-44 | 8.47 | 71.19 | 6.78 | 45.76 | 28.81 | 6.78 | 25.42 | 35.59 | 22.03 | 5.08 |
| 45-54 | 21.47 | 73.62 | 4.91 | 53.37 | 34.97 | 3.68 | 22.70 | 23.93 | 22.70 | 11.04 |
| 55-64 | 16.77 | 68.64 | 5.13 | 46.55 | 38.07 | 3.35 | 23.08 | 24.06 | 15.58 | 10.26 |
| 65 or Above | 13.01 | 66.99 | 4.34 | 40.24 | 33.25 | 3.45 | 26.10 | 25.38 | 11.57 | 11.00 |
| Prefer Not to Answer | 9.68 | 54.84 | 9.68 | 48.39 | 19.35 | 6.45 | 25.81 | 12.90 | 19.35 | 16.13 |
Which Conservative leader do you think Labour would be most scared of facing in a General Election?
| Boris Johnson | 71.86% |
| Suella Braverman | 7.33% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 6.62% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 5.51% |
| Other not listed | 2.68% |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 2.59% |
| Rishi Sunak | 1.01% |
| Liz Truss | 0.81% |
| David Cameron | 0.77% |
| Robert Jenrick | 0.48% |
| Priti Patel | 0.34% |
Do you want to Bring Back Boris?
| Yes | 73.20% |
| Don’t know | 15.24% |
| No | 11.55% |
Do you believe the Conservative Party has been hijacked by non-Conservatives?
| Yes | 92.09% |
| Don’t know | 5.03% |
| No | 2.88% |
Fieldwork: 29/01/2024 to 31/01/2024 Valid Responses: 2086
Fascinating, and entirely in line with my own views. I too am a member who sadly was not one of those invited to participate in the survey. The party has wasted 14 years, squandered money on HS2 and raising aid to 7% while failing to train enough NHS staff so we are forced to rely on immigration. They are too ready to compromise and fail to see that there will always be objections to what you propose. I could go on and on
Please can you tell us when this is going to go, for new leader.?
Please don’t wait till the election. This is to much stress now.
I’ve been writing how much you guys need this.
I don’t want this to go on and on.
We need action, and with a date.
We see that most of your guys,are going to reform if Mr Sunak still here.
Results are 20 per cent not GOOD!!
Please some reply would be appreciated
.
Please reply urgently Thank you Lorna Murray
Need reply.
It isn’t just about the leader. Too many liberals fill the seats where we need true conservative patriots who believe in an enterprising, self sufficient Britain. Better the party die than many sitting MP’s get re-elected
I resigned my membership when Boris went. Your survey refects my thoughts precisely.
I totally agree with the above, i’ve supported the Conservatives for over 20 years but i cancelled my membership the day Liz Truss was ousted and Rishi planted in, it was pointless being a paid member if our leader is going to be undemocratically elected the way he was.
I also blame Rishi and his camp for the media frenzy which surrounded Boris, they did nothing to support our democratically elected PM and i wouldn’t be surprised if they assisted with the leaks, so i don’t trust him and his front bench and i never will.
I am a member of Reform now and i agree with everything they say, i have no confidence in the current Conservative party and i will not vote for them even if to keep Labour out of Downing Steet at the next election.
The current party does not deserve to be in office.