As Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares for his EU reset, a new campaign backed by Lord Gove warns that reversing Brexit could leave British taxpayers facing a £39.3 billion annual bill, without the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher.
BRITAIN could face a staggering £750 million-a-week bill if it rejoins the European Union, according to a new pro-Brexit campaign warning that Brussels has become considerably more expensive since the UK voted to leave.
The newly launched Stay Out campaign, chaired by former deputy Brexit negotiator Oliver Lewis and backed by former Cabinet minister Lord Gove, has calculated that Britain’s annual gross contribution could reach £39.3 billion under the EU’s proposed financial arrangements for 2028.
The warning comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares to travel to Brussels for further negotiations on Britain’s relationship with the EU, amid renewed debate over whether the country should eventually reverse the historic 2016 referendum decision.
For Brexit supporters, the figures raise a fundamental question: why should Britain contemplate surrendering its independence once again, potentially at a substantially higher financial cost?
Brussels wants a bigger budget, and somebody must pay for it
The European Commission has proposed a long-term budget of almost €2 trillion for the seven years between 2028 and 2034, equivalent to approximately 1.26 per cent of the EU’s gross national income.
That proposal is genuine and publicly documented by the Commission, although the final budget remains subject to negotiation.
Stay Out argues that Britain’s financial obligations would be significantly greater than before Brexit, particularly because any returning UK government would be unlikely to recover the budget rebate originally negotiated by Margaret Thatcher.
Its calculations suggest a gross contribution of £39.3 billion annually, compared with the £19.1 billion gross figure commonly cited during the 2016 referendum campaign.
However, the campaign’s calculation is a projection rather than an agreed membership bill. It does not deduct potential EU funding returning to Britain and is therefore not a calculation of the net cost to the Treasury.
The group nevertheless argues that the scale of the potential financial commitment should give politicians considerable pause before reopening the question of membership.
A substantial part of the increased projected cost comes from Brussels’ plans for new revenue sources, including contributions linked to emissions trading, packaging waste, electronic waste, tobacco duties and corporate activity.
The EU must also finance repayments associated with borrowing undertaken during the Covid pandemic.
European Commission financial forecasts anticipate that annual resources needed to meet obligations arising from its pandemic recovery borrowing will increase from approximately €9.9 billion in 2027 to €24 billion in 2028.
To Stay Out, these developments demonstrate that the European Union Britain might rejoin would be a very different financial proposition from the organisation the country left.
Lord Gove warns against surrendering Britain’s independence
Lord Gove, who chaired the Vote Leave campaign during the 2016 referendum, has thrown his support behind the new organisation.
He argues that rejoining the EU would not simply involve another financial commitment, but would mean transferring significant decision-making powers back to Brussels.
For Britain, that could mean once again accepting EU rules on trade, immigration and regulation, alongside the obligations of membership.
Lord Gove also warned that reopening the Brexit question would risk dragging the country into years of difficult negotiations and political division when voters are more concerned about household bills, mortgages and living standards.
The former Cabinet minister believes the Government should concentrate on domestic priorities rather than contemplating another fundamental change in Britain’s constitutional relationship with Europe.
Andy Burnham’s EU reset faces growing resistance
The launch of Stay Out comes at a politically sensitive moment for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has indicated that Britain’s relationship with the European Union should be reconsidered.
Mr Burnham previously expressed a desire to see Britain return to the EU during his lifetime and has since advocated closer cooperation with Brussels.
His Government argues that reducing trade barriers and improving relations with Britain’s European neighbours could benefit British businesses and consumers.
However, closer economic cooperation and full EU membership are not the same thing, and Mr Burnham has ruled out proposing rejoining the EU during the current Parliament.
Nevertheless, Brexit campaigners fear that a series of agreements involving regulatory alignment could gradually undermine the independence secured through the referendum.
The concern is not simply about whether Britain formally rejoins the EU, but whether ministers begin accepting Brussels regulations without Britain having a meaningful say over how those rules are made.
That would present a particularly uncomfortable prospect for voters who supported Brexit precisely to restore democratic accountability to Westminster.
The £350 million Brexit debate returns, but with much bigger numbers
The new £750 million weekly estimate inevitably recalls the fiercely contested £350 million figure used during the 2016 referendum campaign.
That earlier figure represented a gross contribution before deducting Britain’s rebate and EU funding returning to the UK.
Official figures from the Office for National Statistics subsequently showed that Britain’s gross contribution after the rebate was £13.9 billion in 2016, while the net public sector contribution was £9.4 billion.
Stay Out’s £39.3 billion estimate is likewise a gross figure, calculated on the assumption that Britain would not regain its former rebate.
The difference matters. A gross contribution is not the same as the eventual net cost of membership, and any reliable comparison must acknowledge that distinction.
Equally, it would be misleading to suggest that full EU membership could be restored without substantial financial obligations or negotiations over Britain’s contributions.
The Commission’s budget proposals provide genuine grounds for questioning what those obligations might be, particularly as Brussels seeks to finance an expanding range of programmes and repay its existing debts.
A new battle to defend Brexit
Stay Out’s creation signals that supporters of British sovereignty are preparing to organise against any renewed attempt to take the UK back into the European Union.
The organisation is open to members of different political parties, reflecting its intention to build support beyond traditional party boundaries.
Its arrival follows reports that Nigel Farage has discussed reviving the Leave.EU campaign with businessman Arron Banks, one of the most prominent financial supporters of the original Brexit movement.
Former prime minister Lord Cameron has also warned against reopening the membership question.
Although these figures differ on many aspects of British politics, the prospect of another national confrontation over EU membership is bringing renewed attention to the referendum result.
For Stay Out, the argument is straightforward: Britain voted to leave the European Union, and politicians should respect that decision rather than reopening the question of membership.
The Government, meanwhile, maintains that closer cooperation with the EU could reduce costs for consumers and make life easier for British exporters.
But campaigners insist that any proposed arrangements must be examined for their financial implications and their effect on Britain’s ability to make its own laws.
The question facing the Prime Minister is whether his EU reset can deliver genuine economic advantages without compromising the sovereignty voters demanded in 2016.
With Brussels proposing a substantially larger budget and renewed debate about Britain’s future relationship with the bloc, Stay Out intends to ensure that the financial and democratic consequences of rejoining remain firmly in the public spotlight.
For Brexit supporters, the message is unmistakable: Britain’s independence was hard won, and returning to Brussels should not be treated as either inevitable or affordable.
