Burnham Faces Renewed Pressure Over Chagos Islands Surrender as Poll Shows Public Wants Chagossians to Have a Vote

As Parliament returns and Andy Burnham settles into his first weeks facing MPs, the future of the Chagos Islands remains one of the most contested items on his in-tray, and new polling suggests the British public wants the Chagossian people themselves to have a direct say in what happens next.

A YouGov survey commissioned by Great British PAC found that 72% of Britons believe the Chagossian people should be given a vote on whether sovereignty of the islands transfers to Mauritius.

The poll, based on responses from 2,158 UK adults, found majority support for a vote across voters of every major party from the 2024 general election, as well as across age groups and socio-economic backgrounds.

Great British PAC’s chief executive, Claire Bullivant, described the results as an unusually clear and consistent message from the public, arguing that a question of self-determination on this scale should not be dismissed. Former Conservative minister Dame Priti Patel was also critical of how the process has been handled, accusing the government of sidelining Chagossian voices throughout the negotiations.

What Chagossians Themselves Have Said

Separately, a survey of the global Chagossian diaspora, carried out in late 2025 and endorsed by Andrew Hawkins, founder of the polling firm Whitestone Insight, found overwhelming support among respondents for the islands to remain British.

The poll, titled Voice your Indigenous rights on the future of your Homeland, gathered around 3,389 responses worldwide, which organisers say represents roughly a third of the estimated 8,000 to 10,000-strong global Chagossian population and around two-thirds of those based in the UK. Of those who answered questions on the islands’ future, more than 99% backed continued British sovereignty over a transfer to Mauritius.

Hawkins called the scale of participation “exceptional” and said the results should be “taken seriously,” while also acknowledging that, because the survey was voluntary rather than a random sample, its representativeness “cannot be calculated precisely.”

Where the Deal Stands

The agreement, originally signed under Sir Keir Starmer in 2025, would see Britain cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while leasing back the Diego Garcia military base, a site jointly run with the United States, for at least 99 years. The deal was thrown into doubt earlier this year after pressure from the Trump administration led to it being temporarily shelved, but reports since suggest Burnham intends to press ahead largely unchanged. A spokesperson for Burnham has previously said no final decisions had been taken.

The Cost Dispute

Exactly how much the deal will cost taxpayers remains genuinely disputed. The government’s own figure, based on the “real terms” value of payments over the 99-year lease, puts the cost at around £3.4 billion. Critics, including the Conservatives, calculate the cost differently, adding up the cash value of every annual payment over the full century without discounting for inflation, and arrive at a considerably higher figure, often cited as £35 billion, with some estimates put even higher.

Independent fact-checkers have noted that both figures are legitimate ways of expressing the same underlying commitment, using standard Treasury discounting methods that have been applied by governments of both major parties for over two decades. The scale of the disagreement has nonetheless kept the cost of the deal a live political argument, with opposition figures arguing the lower government figure understates the true burden on taxpayers.

What Happens Next

With Parliament back in session, the Chagos deal is likely to feature in the questions Burnham faces from opposition MPs this week, alongside domestic priorities such as sentencing reform and public ownership of services. Whether the government commits to any form of consultation with the Chagossian community, and how it addresses the ongoing dispute over costs, are both expected to remain points of pressure on the Prime Minister in the weeks ahead.

For more details on the polling: https://www.greatbritishpac.com/news/yougov-poll-72-percent-support-chagossian-vote-on-sovereignty

The survey of the Chagossian diaspora can be read in full here: https://conservativepost.co.uk/chagossians-overwhelmingly-back-remaining-british-major-survey-finds/