The Conservatives have moved ahead of Labour in national polling for the first time in almost four years, according to figures compiled by the Telegraph.
The Telegraph’s poll tracker places the Conservatives on an average of 18.5 per cent, their strongest showing since May, while Labour has fallen back to 18 per cent following a difficult period for the party and its leader Keir Starmer.
The change marks the first time the Conservatives have led Labour since late 2021, when support for the then prime minister Boris Johnson began to deteriorate amid internal disputes and the partygate controversy.
The Telegraph poll tracker aggregates recent surveys from a range of polling companies, including YouGov, Opinium and Savanta, weighting each firm according to its accuracy at the previous general election.
Despite the Conservatives’ improvement, Reform UK continues to lead overall polling. The party, led by Nigel Farage, has been ahead since March and currently averages 29.3 per cent, slightly below its September peak of 30.6 per cent.
The Green Party has also recorded a rise in support, reaching 15.5 per cent under its new leader Zack Polanski, as some left wing voters move away from Labour. This places the Greens ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who are polling at an average of 12.7 per cent.
Kemi Badenoch became Conservative leader in November 2024 and initially faced speculation about her position amid criticism that policy development was proceeding too slowly. During the leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak, she said she would prioritise returning the party to its core principles following its heavy defeat at the previous election.
Conservative supporters were encouraged by her most significant policy announcement to date at the party’s annual conference in October, when she pledged to abolish stamp duty. Her response to the Budget last month also drew a positive reaction within the party after she criticised Chancellor Rachel Reeves and condemned what she described as £30bn of tax rises.
Mrs Badenoch has also committed to scrapping net zero targets and withdrawing the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights, although the Conservatives remain below the 23.7 per cent vote share they achieved at the 2024 general election.
On Sunday, Matt Vickers, the party’s deputy chairman, suggested cooperation with Reform UK could be considered if Conservative fortunes do not improve. He said voters should “come back and ask” about a pact before the 2029 general election.
Mrs Badenoch has ruled out a formal coalition with Reform UK, though some Conservative MPs anticipate either an informal understanding before polling day or a joint arrangement.
Next year’s local elections are widely expected to be challenging for both major parties, with Labour facing potential losses to Green and independent candidates on the left and to Reform UK on the right.
Speculation over Sir Keir’s leadership has continued, with Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham frequently mentioned as possible successors. While only two Labour MPs have publicly called for the Prime Minister to resign, some observers expect further criticism if the party performs poorly in May.
On Sunday, Kevin Hollinrake defended Mrs Badenoch’s approach, describing her as “the real deal”. He told GB News: “She took time to get her policies right before bringing them forward. That started with the party conference in Manchester back in October and since then, we have had this drumbeat of announcements.
“Kemi was clear [that] rebuilding was going to take time. She decided to find her feet as leader. We also needed to find our own feet in terms of policies to ensure the shadow cabinet was working together.”
Separately, polling by Lord Ashcroft Polls placed Labour fourth on 18 per cent, behind Reform UK on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 22 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent.
