The local elections are finally here (remember to take a valid ID!).
The usual battle of expectation management and number forecasting is in full flow, and is as unsatisfactory and imprecise as ever.
Whilst we Conservatives are unfortunately bracing for losses, and are debating the scale of them, actually the reality is that compared with 2019 we shouldn’t be expecting losses at all – but actual gains. This may be of little comfort to our embattled council candidates and their sore feet, but it is a reflection of national factors.
Whilst some experts have predicted losses of a thousand councillors – attributed to Michael Thrasher and Rallings of Nuffield College Oxford – others put losses at 258, as predicted by Electoral Calculus, whilst the great polling guru Sir John Curtice suggests losses of 700 councillors for Conservatives is unfortunately “quite possible”.
Helping hard-working councillors and councillor candidates in the East of England, mainly around Norwich and Cambridge, I have found the reception better than expected – no doors slammed in faces, as with Theresa May; no big fallouts, but apathy and low turnout from our supporters seem to be the biggest danger. Postal Votes appear to be sluggish. Conservatives tend to punish by not turning out.
Big dissatisfaction with the national direction of Government is being reported back, and I have found on the doorstep, a significant number still lament the loss of Boris Johnson.
Big dissatisfaction with the national direction of Government is being reported back, and I have found on the doorstep, a significant number still lament the loss of Boris Johnson. One voter told me last week in Norwich:
“I voted for you with Boris, but now I am returning to my roots – Labour”.
With such a picture, how is it that low losses can be seen as a good result when we should be on course for actual gains? These are the factors at play:
- In 2019 our local election performance was the worse in a quarter of a century – 25 years. It was the time of Brexit paralysis with some diehard Remainers disgracefully seeking to sabotage the democratic will in Westminster. As John Curtice observed on Sunday: what he calls a “very peculiar baseline” is very low from 2019. On 2nd May 2019 we lost 1,269 councillors and a third of councils we were contesting – indeed we lost control of 49 councils. It was so bad that the Prime Minister – Theresa May – had to resign days later on 24th May. It was a disaster.
- Nationally, we are not quite in May Government meltdown territory under Rishi Sunak, but we haven’t been far off it. When ohnson resigned on 7th July 2022 his resignation speech referred to being behind in the polls by two per cent, saying “it would be eccentric to change governments when we are delivering so much, and when we have such as vast mandate and when we are actually only a handful of points behind in the polls even in mid term after quite a few months of pretty unrelenting sledging”. Indeed, two to four per cent was the variance in the polls. Since dumping Boris, and opening the electoral Pandora’s Box, polling has hit a low point of minus 30 per cent and, whilst it has shown a bit of a recovery, is still in the stubborn -15 per cent zone, and -17 per cent (45 per cent Labour to 28 per cent Conservative) in the 30th April Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll. But the local elections are unlikely to reflect that national polling reality because, as Curtice points out, 5,000 of the 8,000 council seats being contested are in more rural and smaller ‘shire counties’ where we Conservatives have an advantage. So, it should be more positive in theory.
- Reportedly, we Conservatives have a lot more actual candidates standing – 93 per cent of contested seats have candidates; 77 per cent Labour, and Liberal Democrats 60 per cent. So, we at least have an inbuilt advantage, again in theory. Curtice points out Labour also suffered in 2019 whilst the Liberal Democrats did well with gains of 704 seats – marking a high point for them. Labour meanwhile are on safe ground to say, as LabourList.org website puts it: “National vote share in local elections for Labour is always lower than the Westminster opinion polls, because the Greens, Lib Dems and Independents perform better in local than general elections, when they get squeezed”.
- As in all local elections there are (surprise surprise) local factors at work. I am heartened to hear Slough could come our way, as there is pretty much a single issue campaign there run by good friend Dexter Jerome Smith on the basis of stopping a second consecutive ten per cent rise in council taxes by the inept and bankrupt Labour council, whilst in Cambridge, there is a strong local campaign against a congestion charge (‘Sustainable Transport Zone’) for Cambridge City which is creating a one issue opportunity with people looking beyond the rosette and could produce surprising results.
So, actually, compared with that meltdown in 2019, this should all mean a swing back to us. There are good reasons to be more optimistic. If we therefore suffer losses, and especially substantial losses, anything over 250 council seats say, then it will be a very serious reversal indeed.
When the dust has settled, and results are what they are to be, the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO) is putting together a major Conference with the theme of Members taking Control in the nostalgic national Conference venue of Bournemouth on Saturday 13th May – offering great value by the seaside.
Here we can discuss and debate the longer term implications of these local results with friends, including a stellar line up of speakers such as Jacob Rees Mogg, Priti Patel, Nadine Dorries, Lord Cruddas of Shoreditch, Nile Gardner of the Thatcher Centre for Freedom Washington DC, Mark Littlewood of the IEA, Social commentator Sophie Corcoran, Dan Wootton interviewing Priti for GB News, and other big names to come. We are delighted the Party Vice Chairman, Paul Holmes, is joining us; and that we had a very productive meeting weeks back with Greg Hands – we are all on the same side.
We are delighted the Party Vice Chairman, Paul Holmes, is joining us; and that we had a very productive meeting weeks back with Greg Hands – we are all on the same side.
We will address how we can collectively rebuild our party and its operations for the national election challenge ahead, apparently in Autumn next year. We want constitutional reform with an elected Party Chairman to represent members’ views, far less central control of candidates, a One Member One Vote Annual General Meeting and widened National Convention, the Spring Forum to be a policy conference, and party leadership rules to be agreed by the Board. We must rebuild our membership.
Whilst CDO is an internal party campaign to restore democracy, and CDO does not campaign directly to voters, many CDO officers have been hard at work helping their local campaigns via their own associations, as I have. We have officers managing up to 40 local council candidates and standing themselves both in the South East and the Midlands, for example.
We wish all local councillors and councillor candidates the very best of luck. We look forward to seeing many of you in Bournemouth. Where you can recuperate.
David Campbell Bannerman is the Chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation. He is President of the Norwich Federation Conservatives and also President of the Cambridge City Conservatives.
