If this is the intellectual calibre of Labour’s top brass, we are in deeper waters than we thought.
By any reckoning, and I do mean any rational reckoning, the latest political brainwave from Angela Rayner, Labour’s Deputy Prime Minister-in-waiting, is a catastrophic misfire.
One might call it economic cosplay. A fantasy scribbled not on the back of an envelope but perhaps, one suspects, a crumpled cigarette packet after a particularly boozy union dinner.
According to The Telegraph, Ms Rayner’s leaked tax memo is riddled with inaccuracies so glaring they could be spotted from low orbit. And even her own team seems to know it. The math simply doesn’t add up. Not even close.
Take the example of AIM shares. The memo boldly claims that scrapping inheritance tax relief here could raise up to £1 billion per year. But as the Telegraph points out Tax experts like Dan Neidle, say £100 million is more realistic. That’s a 900% overshoot. That’s not a rounding error. That’s economic illiteracy dressed up as policy.
This isn’t just bad accounting, it’s dangerous. If this is the intellectual calibre of Labour’s top brass, we are in deeper waters than we thought. It’s like watching a child try to reboot a supercomputer with a hammer.
Even basic pension policy is bungled. Rayner’s assumption that bringing back the lifetime allowance will magically raise £800 million is wishful thinking at best, fantasy at worst. As former pensions minister Steve Webb noted, such a move would require surgical exemptions for NHS staff and protections for savers, turning the whole exercise into a multi-year quagmire with minimal fiscal return.
The optics? Dreadful. The economics? Worse. And the politics? Well, you could be forgiven for wondering if Labour are running a stealth campaign to return us to the glorious chaos of the 1970s… economic stagnation, punitive taxes, and leadership that’s long on slogans but short on sums.
The real problem isn’t just that so many of Labour’s numbers are wrong, it’s that they reveal a mindset utterly unmoored from reality. Rayner’s memo pushes feel-good tax rises like confetti, without serious regard for behavioural response, long-term yield, or administrative complexity. It’s tax-by-vibes.
It’s a fundamental failure of first principles and you can’t run a country like a student union. You can’t just say “tax the rich” and expect the revenue elves to deliver a windfall.
But here’s the real worry: this isn’t just Angela Rayner freelancing. There are serious whispers in Westminster that she could be the next Prime Minister. If Starmer stumbles much further, and many think he might, Rayner could be at the helm.
Let that sink in.
Britain, a G7 economy, might soon be steered by someone whose flagship fiscal plan is off by hundreds of millions, and whose grasp of financial policy seems shakier than a three-legged pub stool.
Blind leading the blind? No… it’s worse than that. It’s like handing the keys of a nuclear sub to someone who thinks “Trident” is a chewing gum brand.
The stakes are too high for wishful arithmetic. Voters should demand more…more rigour, more realism, and yes, more respect for numbers. Because in the end, the spreadsheet doesn’t lie.
But politicians do.
By Jack Lions
Main Image: For illustration purposes only. Image created with Grok.
