The exodus is far steeper than Labour’s own prediction that the policy would lead to just 3,000 pupils leaving private schools across the UK this year.
Private school pupil numbers in England have plummeted by more than 11,000 just months after Labour’s controversial VAT raid on fees kicked in.
New figures from the Department for Education (DfE) show there were around 582,500 pupils in English private schools as of January — down from 593,500 the year before. That’s a 1.9 per cent fall, or one in fifty pupils, the sharpest annual decline in decades.
The slump is far steeper than the Government’s own prediction that the policy would lead to just 3,000 pupils leaving private schools across the UK this year.
Julie Robinson, chief exec of the Independent Schools Council (ISC), said: “These new Department for Education statistics show that the drop in independent school numbers cannot be explained by the fall in overall pupil numbers.”
She added: “The Government’s own figures now show that, in England alone, 8,000 more students have left independent education than politicians had estimated. This outsized exodus should concern anyone who is interested in this tax on education as a revenue raiser.”
The 20 per cent VAT hike on private school fees came into effect in January — a move Labour claims will raise £1.8 billion a year to boost state education.
But experts are warning this is just the beginning of the fallout.
Mike Stimpson, partner at wealth manager Saltus, warned: “The academic year starting this September will be the first full school year under the new VAT regime, and our research suggests we are likely to see further declines in private school enrolments as the financial impact of this policy becomes even more real for families.”
The ISC’s own census shows 13,000 pupils have dropped out of private schools across the UK — a far cry from Government reassurances that the impact would be minimal.
Figures show that many of the steepest falls in pupil numbers were in poorer areas, including:
- 26% drop in St Helens, Merseyside
- 13% fall in Brent, north-west London
- 11% drop in Barking and Dagenham, east London
Traditional independent schools — those outside special needs and religious categories — were hit hardest. Among the 1,218 schools examined by The Telegraph, numbers fell by 12,850 pupils — a 2.7% drop.
Court documents obtained by The Telegraph earlier this year revealed Chancellor Rachel Reeves was warned the VAT policy could force an extra 100 private schools to close over three years — a detail never disclosed by the Government publicly.
The same documents showed Labour deliberately chose what civil servants called the “most disruptive” date to start the VAT charge to “maximise revenue.”
A judicial review into the tax raid, launched by angry parent groups who claim it breaches human rights laws, was heard in April. A ruling from three High Court judges is expected within weeks.
Average private school fees have already soared 22.6% this year, according to the ISC, far above the 10% increase estimated by the Treasury last October.
What’s clear is Labour’s fee raid is sending thousands of families packing — and, critics warn, the state sector is having to now pick up the bill and it could leave a lasting mark on Britain’s education landscape.
