Keir Starmer’s claim that the UK will pump £13 billion more into defence by 2027 is looking increasingly dubious as the numbers fail to add up—especially when inflation is taken into account.
The Labour leader has committed to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, with an interim goal of reaching that figure by 2027.
On the surface, that sounds like a big win for Britain’s armed forces, but a closer look at the figures suggests that the claim is being stretched to its limits.
Crunching the Numbers
As highlighted by Andrew Neil in 2024, the UK’s GDP stood at £2.8 trillion, and at 2.3% of GDP, that meant defence spending amounted to £64 billion—which includes military pensions.
Fast forward to 2027, when GDP is projected to reach £3.132 trillion. If Starmer sticks to his 2.5% pledge, that equates to £78 billion in defence spending—a nominal increase of £12 billion, not £13 billion. The extra billion likely comes from rounding or optimistic projections.
But crucially, this figure does not account for inflation. In real terms, defence spending will likely increase by far less than claimed.
The Inflation Illusion
The UK is already in 2025, with GDP projected at £2.9 trillion. At 2.3% of GDP, defence spending this year is already set to rise to £67 billion—meaning the jump to £78 billion in 2027 would be just £11 billion over the next two years.
And that’s before factoring in inflation, which could easily wipe out much of this so-called increase. If inflation remains high, the real-terms boost to the armed forces could be negligible, leaving Britain’s military dangerously underfunded at a time of rising global threats.
Spin vs. Reality
While Labour’s pledge sounds like a solid commitment on paper, the reality is far less impressive. The £13 billion figure is misleading, inflated by nominal calculations rather than real spending power. If Starmer’s government fails to account for inflation properly, the UK’s military could still face stagnant budgets, recruitment crises, and outdated equipment.
At a time when threats from Russia, China, and global instability are on the rise, Britain’s defences need genuine investment—not creative accounting. Starmer’s headline-grabbing promise may look good in a press release, but when it comes to Britain’s security, the numbers simply don’t stack up.
Main Image: Photographer – Sgt Neil Bryden RAF UK MOD © Crown copyright 2024 MOD Crown Copyright News / Editorial Licence.
