The SNP are spinning myths, not facts — the numbers prove Scotland still backs the Union, says Stephen Bailey.
Both John Swinney, the current SNP leader, and his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon, have recently tried to play the demographics card in an attempt to explain away the cold, hard fact that they are making little progress in persuading Scots to support separating Scotland from the rest of the UK.
Both Sturgeon (during a television interview) and Swinney (at the SNP’s recent conference) emphasised that 16-24-year-olds show strong support for separation. Swinney also misled MSPs at Holyrood by misrepresenting the results of a poll commissioned by the pro-separatist paper The National, which found that 63% of 16-24-year-old Scots supported independence. Swinney used this figure to claim that overall support for independence was “over 50%”, suggesting erroneously that the majority of Scots across all age groups now support leaving the UK. This same statistic was echoed by Sturgeon in her interview.
However, a full analysis of polling data offers a far more nuanced picture that directly contradicts the SNP’s narrative.
The 2014 Youth Vote: A Nuanced Picture
In 2014, following the independence referendum, YouGov conducted an extensive survey of how different age groups voted. Their findings showed:
- Among 16-24-year-olds, a slim majority supported remaining in the Union, with support for independence just a few points behind.
- The 25-39 age group showed the strongest support for independence.
- Among 40-59, 60-64, and 65+ age groups, majorities supported remaining in the Union, with the strongest support (65%) coming from over-65s.
This data dispelled the myth that youth support was overwhelmingly pro-independence. In fact, younger generations were far more evenly split than SNP rhetoric suggests.
Polling in 2024: Little Has Changed
Fast forward a decade. YouGov’s 2024 data shows that support for independence has remained largely static since 2014:
- 56% of Scots would vote ‘No’ to separation, while 44% would vote ‘Yes’.
- The ‘Yes’ side briefly led only on two occasions since 2014, according to YouGov’s tracker.
- Support for separation peaked at 53% in August 2020 and December 2022, but fell to lows of 43% between March 2017 and January 2018.
Significantly, only 70% of those who voted Yes in 2014 say they would do so again. In contrast, 79% of 2014 No voters still support the Union, and only 11% would now back separation. This suggests that the pro-Union side has been more effective at retaining and persuading voters.
Among new voters:
- Just 39% of 16-24-year-olds now support separation, while 31% back the Union.
- In the 25-49 age bracket, 42% support independence while 37% oppose it.
- Among 50-64s and over-65s, support for separation is low: only 36% and 27% respectively, compared to 54% and 66% who would vote No.
Political Alignment and Independence
Voting intention is strongly tied to party affiliation:
- 97% of 2024 Conservative voters would vote No.
- 82% of SNP voters support independence, while 10% oppose it.
- 69% of Labour voters would vote No, with just 20% supporting Yes.
Key Issues That Influence Public Opinion
Polls indicate several scenarios that would significantly reduce support for independence:
- If independence caused a rise in the cost of living, only 26% would still support it.
- Support would drop to 25-33% if independence led to the loss of the Pound, border checks with England, or major job losses.
The SNP’s Strategy: Manipulation and Manufactured Momentum
Pro-independence outlets such as The National continue to publish selective poll results to create an illusion of momentum. However, the majority of polling evidence indicates a strong, consistent preference among Scots to remain in the UK.
The SNP’s strategy increasingly relies on:
- Manipulating public perception: Misrepresenting the national mood, inflating attendance figures at pro-independence rallies, and cherry-picking favourable statistics.
- Distorting data: Ignoring the bulk of polling evidence, misrepresenting polls to Parliament, and focusing narrowly on one demographic while implying broader support.
This campaign of attrition aims to exhaust the electorate through repeated referenda, hoping that sheer repetition will lead to a Yes vote. However, the data does not support the claim that independence is inevitable.
Conclusion
Despite claims from SNP leaders, support for Scottish independence is neither inevitable nor majority-held. The objective, empirical evidence consistently shows a majority of Scots in favour of remaining in the UK across most demographics. Young voters are not a lost cause, and the pro-Union side still has every opportunity to engage and persuade.
The reality is clear: there is nothing inevitable about independence — and the people of Scotland know it.
For more from Stephen Bailey please visit: https://ukunionism.wordpress.com/blog-2/
© 2025 Stephen Bailey
Sources:
- YouGov 2014 Demographics Report
- YouGov 2024 Independence Tracker
- Opinium ‘IndyRef 10 Years On’
- Ballot Box Scotland – Independence Polls
- Fantasy Figures Exposed
