Dan Barker, a former Conservative Party member, Association Chair and PPC explains why the Conservative leadership contest is fundamentally asking the wrong questions.
With six candidates vying for the top spot and the annual conference on the horizon, the race to be the next leader of the Conservative Party is in full swing.
But as an outsider looking in, this seems very much to be the first of several leadership contests that will need to happen.
I will wager that whoever wins this initial contest will not be the leader that takes the Conservatives into the next General Election. Here are the reasons why.
Despite many senior and experienced voices within the party calling for a period of reflection to allow for a proper assessment of what went wrong and why, the great and the good have instead chosen to plough ahead with a contest with a timeline driven by their desire to announce the new leader at the last day of their annual conference in early October. This may prove to be folly indeed.
By rushing their ‘mea culpa’ moment they are missing the opportunity to define who and what they stand for. They are in their own words – a broad church. But until they decide who and what they stand for philosophically and ideologically they are a broad church with no religion and now no roof!
Until they decide who and what they stand for philosophically and ideologically they are a broad church with no religion and now no roof!
In the absence of a nascent conservative renewal, their default is the social democrats they have become under the dominance of the One Nation Tories faction. It is arguably the wet liberal One Nationers who bear the responsibility for the mess they are in, the fact that Labour are in office with a huge majority and that Reform UK exist at all and are climbing steadily in the polls.
Then there are the candidates – not an entirely inspiring bunch. James Cleverley is rumoured to not be able to live up to his surname, which rightly or wrongly, has begun to stick. Robert Jenrick is perceived to be cosplaying at being on the right-wing of the party and not convincing anyone at all. Another centrist, Tugendhat is playing fast and loose, flirting with ‘leaving the ECHR if I have to’, but no-one, even in the Conservatives, believes he has any intention of going through with it; if elected, he will be Sunak 2.0. According to recent polling Stride and Patel remain as rank outsiders. Badenoch although behind Jenrick in recent polling, has been the favourite for a while and talks a good game. She gave Rayner and Labour a good thrashing on housing targets at the despatch box lately that has gone viral but what did she actually achieve whilst she was in Government?
Some of the behaviour from the candidates is also, well… interesting. With the exception of Robert Jenrick, they have all blamed Nigel Farage and Reform UK’ rhetoric around the issue of immigration for encouraging the recent unrest and riots. They have unanimously declared that Nigel Farage cannot and will not be a member of the Conservative Party whilst they are leader. So, for now, they have all painted themselves into a corner as they continue to deny or play down what has just happened: a historic defeat and the rise of Reform UK.
So, for now, they have all painted themselves into a corner as they continue to deny or play down what has just happened: a historic defeat and the rise of Reform UK.
Until they embrace this new reality and consider how they will respond to it as a party, they face one of two futures, a never-ending cycle of Labour governments as the vote on the right is continually split. Or a continued erosion of their membership and voter base at the local and national level until they become a minority party in Westminster. With the Liberal Democrats coming for their centrist voters and Reform UK for everyone else, their moment of peril is only just beginning.
But the main reason why this will not be the last or only leadership contest, is that the process is fundamentally asking the wrong questions. There has still not been (and will not be on the current timeline) a debate that asks why people voted for them in such great numbers in 2019 to secure a historic 80-seat majority and why a majority of those voters and much of their base abandoned them in 2024 or did not vote at all.
Until they can corporately answer that question and put forward a leader with a credible set of policies in response, then they will soon discover in the prescient words of the former Conservative MP and now Lord (Eric) Pickles: “do not assume this is rock bottom; we could face oblivion at the next election.”
So take it from me, someone who was formerly a Conservative, but saw the light and joined Reform UK… the answer is…immigration, immigration, immigration.
Dan Barker, Reform UK Party Candidate for 2024 Greater Manchester Mayoral and GE24 Blackpool North & Fleetwood Parliamentary election (formerly a Conservative Party member, Association Chair and PPC).
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