Bepi Pezzulli summarises the complex and shifting dynamics of Syria’s fractured landscape, where foreign powers, militant factions, and geopolitical ambitions collide, with Israel emerging as the strategic beneficiary amid the chaos.
“In Syria, even the dust has allegiances.” This old Bedouin saying captures all the intricate volatility of a land where every grain of sand bears the weight of geopolitical intrigue.
The current uprisings, led by factions linked to the infamous Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are no exception. They signal what could be a critical turning point.
Beneath the surface, however, lies a complex chessboard of foreign interests and shifting alliances. Amid the turmoil, as the search for a new equilibrium continues, Israel stands out as the main beneficiary, leveraging its strategic position to bolster military security, undermine adversaries, and extend its regional influence.
The events in Syria
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been a slow and painful process, rooted in the 2011 Arab Spring protests, which called for political reform and an end to regional dictatorships. By 2012, the unrests had escalated into a full-scale civil war. Despite Iran and Russia’s support, including military aid and interventions like the 2015 Russian air campaign, Assad’s position weakened over time due to relentless international sanctions, an enduring economic crisis, and war fatigue among his supporters.
At the outset of the war against ISIS in 2019, Syria was left in a state of profound disarray. The Assad regime, with crucial support from Russia and Iran, regained control over much of western and central Syria, including key cities like Damascus and Aleppo. However, these areas, once reclaimed, were severely scarred by years of conflict. The economy was in ruins, infrastructure was decimated, and insurgent activity persisted, making the regime’s hold tenuous at best.
To the northwest, the situation was equally unstable, with Idlib and surrounding regions falling under the control of various opposition factions, most notably HTS. These groups, divided and frequently at odds with each other, also clashed with regime forces, further complicating an already volatile region.
In the northeast, Kurdish-led forces, primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), established a foothold in areas like Raqqa and Hasakah. With the backing of the United States, the SDF focused on rebuilding their territory and governing independently. However, this autonomy came with constant pressure from Turkey, which viewed the Kurdish forces as a threat and frequently launched military operations to push back against Kurdish influence along its southern border.
Meanwhile, Turkey itself carved out a sphere of influence in northern Syria. Occupying key areas, like Jarabulus, Al-Rai, and Azaz, Turkey sought to create a buffer zone to limit Kurdish autonomy and to facilitate the resettlement of Syrian refugees. This intervention, however, fueled ongoing tensions not only with the Kurdish forces but also with the Assad regime, as both sides resented Turkey’s growing influence in the region.
In 2023, taking advantage of Russia’s heavy engagement in Ukraine and Iran’s struggles due to direct attacks by Israel on Iranian proxies and Tehran itself, HTS launched a series of coordinated offensives across northern Syria. With both Russia and Iran stretched thin, HTS capitalized on the moment of relative weakness, expanding its territorial control and destabilizing the already fragile situation in the region.
By mid-2024, the group had cut off vital supply routes to Damascus, capturing strategic checkpoints and military bases. Their success was enhanced by alliances with local factions and an opportunistic approach to governance, which gained them support among disenfranchised communities.
Over the past month, the rebel groups—comprising Syrian opposition forces, Kurds, Druze, and disaffected citizens from Syria and Lebanon—bolstered by overt Turkish support and likely covert backing from Israel and the USA, launched a sweeping campaign southward, capturing major cities, military bases, and government hubs. Regime forces, initially engaging in fierce clashes, soon began to falter as waves of defections and desertions weakened their ranks. Strategic strikes targeted critical infrastructure and supply lines, leaving the regime unable to maintain control over key territories. By the time the coalition reached Damascus, the regime’s control had effectively disintegrated, marking a dramatic end to Assad’s grip on power and reshaping the geopolitical dynamics of the region.
Al-Julani and the rise of HTS
Al-Julani, the elusive leader of HTS, embodies the paradox of modern militancy. Once a loyal lieutenant of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, al-Julani broke ranks to forge his own path, adapting his rhetoric and alliances to maintain relevance. His group, HTS, originated as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate, before rebranding itself in a bid for broader legitimacy. Despite its tactical pragmatism, HTS remains a fundamentalist organization, controlling swathes of Idlib province with an iron fist.
While al-Julani has sought to portray HTS as a stabilizing force, the group’s brutal tactics and extremist ideology underscore its enduring threat. It is a reminder that in Syria, alliances are as transient as the shifting sands.
Foreign powers: The puppeteers of Syrian chaos
Syria’s unrest is far from a domestic affair. It is a crucible where foreign powers test their strategies and settle their scores. On one side, Turkey, the USA, and Israel maneuvered to contain threats and assert influence. On the other, Iran and Russia propped up the Assad regime, pursuing their own geopolitical ambitions.
Turkey has long sought to expand its influence in northern Syria, viewing the region as both a buffer against Kurdish insurgencies and an opportunity to reassert Ottoman-era dominance. By supporting opposition factions and deploying troops, Turkey has become a key player in Syria’s fragmented conflict.
The USA maintains a more restrained presence, focused on combating ISIS remnants and countering Iranian influence. Washington’s strategic alignment with Kurdish forces has created friction with Turkey, complicating an already convoluted alliance. Israel, meanwhile, has adopted a calculated approach. Israel has consistently maintained that it is not intervening in Syria. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently acknowledged that the regime’s collapse was partly due to Israeli strikes targeting the regime, Iran, and Hezbollah. Additionally, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have assumed control of the Syrian DMZ and deployed substantial reinforcements to the Golan Heights to prevent any rebel efforts to breach the Israeli border.
On the opposing side, Iran and Russia have poured resources into supporting Assad. For Iran, Syria is a critical link in its “Shia Crescent,” enabling the transfer of arms and fighters to Hezbollah.
For Russia, Syria represents both a strategic foothold in the Middle East and a showcase for its military capabilities. For decades, Russia heavily invested in the Assad regime, reaping military advantages akin to those the USA derives from its support of Israel. These included access to intelligence-gathering flights, storage facilities, airfields, seaports, and staging grounds for covert operations—activities that would be difficult to execute from Russian territory under the watchful eye of Western surveillance and media scrutiny.
The regime’s collapse leaves Russia without a major forward base in the Middle East, complicating its strategic operations and amplifying logistical hurdles for its activities in Africa. Tartus and Latakia, located on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, are of significant strategic importance to Russia. Tartus hosts Russia’s only naval facility in the region, providing vital access to the Mediterranean and serving as a key outpost for Russia’s naval operations. Latakia, just south of Tartus, is also crucial due to its proximity to Russian air and ground forces. The Khmeimim Airbase, located near Latakia, is Russia’s primary military hub in Syria, enabling the Russian Air Force to project power across the region. These locations are central to Russia’s military presence and influence in Syria, allowing it to maintain a foothold in the Middle East and counterbalance Western and regional rivals.
Israel’s advantages in a fractured Syria
Amid the chaos, Israel has quietly solidified its strategic position. A weakened Syria—fractured along sectarian lines and drained of its military capacity—poses far less of a threat to Israeli security. The balkanization of Syria into competing factions (Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Shiites, Alawites, and Druze) ensures that no single entity can challenge Israel’s dominance. One of Israel’s most significant gains is its full control of Mt. Hermon, which was immediately conquered by the IDF. This strategic high ground provides unparalleled surveillance capabilities, allowing Israel’s radar systems to detect low-altitude threats deep within Syria and Lebanon. The elimination of blind spots means that hostile air activities—whether from Hezbollah or other militant groups—can be intercepted in real time, bolstering Israel’s defensive posture.
Furthermore, Syria’s diminished status as a conduit for hostile forces, particularly Hezbollah, has disrupted Iran’s regional ambitions. Through a series of covert and overt operations, the IDF have dismantled Syria’s military infrastructure. Airstrikes have targeted weapons depots, missile production facilities, and air defense systems, rendering Syria’s military effectively obsolete. The IDF’s precision strikes have destroyed key Syrian arsenals, ensuring that advanced weaponry does not fall into the hands of an unstable regime or extremist factions. One particularly significant operation was the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons program.
Beyond immediate security concerns, a fragmented Syria aligns with Israel’s broader geopolitical strategy. The absence of a unified Syrian state diminishes the threat of coordinated aggression, while creating opportunities to forge alliances with Sunni Arab states. A shared interest in countering Iran and Turkey’s ambitions could pave the way for a regional coalition, further isolating Israel’s adversaries.
Magen Bibi: A shield for Israel
At the heart of Israel’s security achievements is the leadership of Netanyahu. Under his tenure, Israel has become arguably the safest it has ever been. Netanyahu’s strategic vision—rooted in a clear-eyed assessment of regional threats and opportunities—has enabled Israel to navigate a turbulent Middle East with unparalleled success. From strengthening alliances with the United States and Gulf Arab states to dismantling the permanent threats posed by Hamas and Hezbollah, Netanyahu’s policies have fortified Israel’s position as a regional powerhouse. His leadership underscores a fundamental truth: in a neighborhood as volatile as the Middle East, strength is the only guarantor of peace.
As the dust continues to swirl over Syria’s fractured landscape, one thing is clear: Israel’s vigilance and strategic foresight have turned the chaos next door into an opportunity for enduring security. While others play with fire, Israel builds firewalls—a testament to the adage that in the Middle East, survival is an art perfected by the prepared.
In the words of an old proverb, “When the wind blows, some build walls, others build windmills.” Netanyahu’s Israel does both, ensuring that every gust serves its purpose in securing the nation’s future.
Bepi Pezzulli is a Solicitor specialised in Governance & Leadership as well as the Political Director of Italia Atlantica. Follow Bepi on X here.
