Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is shaking up British politics, coming within just one percentage point of Labour in a new YouGov poll that reveals a seismic shift in voter intentions.
Reform is now on 24 per cent, with Labour narrowly ahead at 25 per cent, down a staggering nine points from their victory in the July 2024 general election.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are trailing in third place on 22 per cent, marking a two-point decline from their election performance just six months ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday and Monday for Sky News and shared with The Times, highlights a major reconfiguration of the political landscape. Together, the Right (Reform UK and the Conservatives) now command 48 per cent of the vote, while Labour hold 25 percent, Lib Dems 14 per cent and Greens 8 per cent.
Farage’s Meteoric Rise
Reform UK’s meteoric rise is nothing short of extraordinary. The party, which secured 15 per cent of the vote in last year’s general election, has nearly doubled its support in the months since. This is despite rumours of a $100 million donation from tech tycoon Elon Musk fizzling out after Musk remarked that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes.”
Back in March 2024, Reform hit a then all-time high of 14 per cent, a figure they retained in the election. Today, they’ve leapfrogged the Conservatives, leaving Kemi Badenoch’s Tories scrambling to regain ground.
Farage has capitalised on growing discontent with Labour’s leadership and has positioned his party as the antidote to the status quo.
Labour’s Troubles Mount
For Keir Starmer, the numbers make for grim reading. Only 10 per cent of voters believe his first six months as Prime Minister have been successful, compared to 60 per cent who judge them as unsuccessful.
Labour’s support is hemorrhaging across the political spectrum:
- 7 per cent have defected to the Lib Dems,
- 6 per cent to the Greens,
- 5 per cent to Reform UK,
- 4 per cent to the Tories,
- And a striking 23 per cent of former Labour voters are now undecided, unwilling to vote, or prefer not to say.
The party is also struggling with its traditional base of elderly voters, a demographic hit hard by policies like the removal of the winter fuel allowance. Just 14 per cent of pensioners now back Labour, down eight points since the election. Embarrassingly for Keir Starmer, his party now suffers a net favourability rating of -34.
A Changing Political Landscape
The poll suggests a country losing faith in Labour while turning to new alternatives. Reform UK’s rise signals frustration with traditional parties, while Labour’s once-loyal voter base is fracturing.
Starmer now faces attacks from two right-wing challengers, with Farage and Badenoch vying for the same disillusioned electorate. For Labour, these numbers indicate a challenging road ahead—and for Reform UK, it’s a moment of unprecedented opportunity.
YouGov’s poll of 2,279 voters in Great Britain underscores that politics in the UK is far from settled. As Reform UK rises, the once-dominant Labour Party is watching its lead slip away.
