A leaked opinion poll has suggested that a split in support among Right-leaning voters could help Labour retain the Makerfield constituency in the forthcoming by-election.
According to reporting by the Telegraph and The i Paper, the survey placed Labour on 35 per cent, Reform UK on 24 per cent and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party on 13 per cent.
If the figures prove accurate, Labour would hold a clear lead despite continued challenges facing the party nationally. The poll suggests that support for Reform UK and Restore Britain may be divided between two parties competing for many of the same voters.
The by-election has attracted national attention following the decision by Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to seek a return to Westminster. Mr Burnham has also stated that he would stand in any future Labour leadership contest.
The leaked survey reportedly shows stronger support for Restore Britain than previous public polling during the campaign. Earlier surveys conducted by polling company Survation placed Labour on 43 per cent, Reform UK on 40 per cent and Restore Britain on seven per cent shortly after the contest began. A second poll published last week showed Labour increasing its lead, with 49 per cent support compared with Reform UK’s 39 per cent and Restore Britain’s eight per cent.
Reform UK has questioned the authenticity of the leaked survey. Party sources reportedly described the findings as “disinformation” and claimed Restore Britain had not achieved more than five per cent support in any of the party’s own internal polling.
Reform representatives have also raised questions about who conducted the survey, noting that polling companies belonging to the British Polling Council would normally publish detailed methodology and data tables alongside their findings.
Restore Britain was founded earlier this year by Rupert Lowe following his departure from Reform UK after a public disagreement with party leader Nigel Farage.
The new party has sought to position itself to the Right of Reform UK on issues including immigration and deportation policy. It has also received public backing from Elon Musk.
Responding to the latest polling claims, Mr Lowe told the Telegraph that Restore Britain was attracting support from people who had become disillusioned with existing political parties rather than simply taking votes away from Reform UK.
Political analyst Sir John Curtice has previously suggested that the emergence of Restore Britain could make it more difficult for Reform UK to win seats where the anti-Labour vote is closely contested. He recently described the Makerfield contest as being finely balanced and said the presence of Restore Britain was likely to be beneficial to Labour.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice has downplayed concerns about the challenge posed by Restore Britain. He pointed to Reform UK’s strong national polling position and said the party remained confident about its prospects.
Mr Burnham has used the campaign to argue for change within Labour, telling voters that electing him would strengthen calls for a new direction for the party. Among his campaign pledges are proposals to reduce business rates for pubs and provide relief for some smaller businesses.
The by-election was triggered after former Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down, arguing that Mr Burnham should be given a route back into Parliament.
Makerfield has elected Labour MPs continuously since the constituency was created in 1983. However, with Reform UK seeking a breakthrough, Restore Britain attempting to establish itself as a new force on the Right, and Labour defending one of its traditional strongholds, the contest is being closely watched across the political spectrum.
The result is expected to provide an important indication of how competition between Reform UK and Restore Britain could influence future elections, particularly in seats where the outcome may depend on a relatively small number of votes.
Worth reading in full here: Telegraph
When BBC QT / Fiona Bruce announced a week before the BBC QT debate that the participants in the debate would be the candidates of the 5 main parties, why didn’t Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain, and Rebecca Shepherd start saying 1 week before the debate that Rebecca Shepherd should be included in it, which could have led to the BBC including her?
Why did Rupert Lowe start moaning and whinging about Shepherd not being included in the debate only 1 day before the debate?