Angela Rayner’s long rumoured leadership ambitions have always lingered in the background of Westminster life.
But as the Labour Party braces for another turbulent year, those ambitions are being reshaped by the most traditional of political concerns, where she can actually win a seat at the next General Election.
As the Daily Mail has reported, Rayner’s strategic dilemma is now inseparable from the extraordinary Reform driven upheaval forecast in national polling. Current projections indicate that her Ashton under Lyne constituency, once considered safe Labour territory, could fall to Nigel Farage’s party. Reform is, according to the estimates cited by the Mail, on course to take 348 seats, leaving Labour with 161 and the Conservatives facing the “extinction level” prospect of 14.
For a politician seen by unions as one of Labour’s most effective campaigners, this presents a brutal reality, before she can think about succeeding Keir Starmer, she must ensure she remains in Parliament at all.
The Question of a Chicken Run
The potential loss of Ashton under Lyne has fuelled talk of a so called “chicken run”, the practice of abandoning a vulnerable seat in favour of a safer one. It is rarely flattering, but sometimes essential for survival.
For Rayner, a proud representative of Labour’s northern working class tradition, that could mean moving southwards to constituencies where Labour’s main competition comes from the Greens or Liberal Democrats, rather than Reform.
One such place is Hove, the seaside enclave where she recently bought an £800,000 flat. That purchase famously triggered her damaging miscalculation over stamp duty, an error that ultimately cost her a place in the Cabinet. But if critics expected the episode to end her leadership hopes, they appear to have underestimated both her resilience and her long term strategy.
Labour insiders, speaking to the Mail on Sunday, claim she has her eye on eventually replacing Peter Kyle, the Business Secretary and current MP for Hove. Kyle secured a majority of 19,791 over the Green Party at the last election, with Reform in fourth place. That margin contrasts sharply with Rayner’s own majority of 6,791 in Ashton under Lyne, where Reform finished second.
According to those same insiders, Hove may not have been her only potential southern base. She reportedly came close to purchasing a property in Whitstable, part of the Canterbury constituency held by Independent MP Rosie Duffield. One local Labour source told the Mail,
“We heard that Rayner was about to close a deal on a place in Whitstable because she had decided to do a chicken run and stand here… But we were told that the deal went wrong in some way and she went to Hove instead.”
Rayner has repeatedly denied any intention of abandoning her seat, insisting she will “stay and fight” in Ashton under Lyne. Her friends also deny she ever viewed properties in Canterbury, noting that Labour rules require MPs to seek reselection locally before attempting to move elsewhere.
A Party Braced for Upheaval
Speculation surrounding Rayner reflects a broader sentiment increasingly shared by Labour MPs, that Keir Starmer’s position may soon become untenable. Many privately predict he could step aside after what are expected to be difficult local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next May.
Rayner is far from the only senior figure facing a precarious future. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, is defending a majority of just 528 in Ilford North. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, faces her own challenge in Birmingham Ladywood. Al Carns, the former Royal Marine turned Defence Minister, is already being talked up as a future leader despite his short parliamentary career.
And looming over them all is Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, who continues to top leadership polls among both the public and Labour members. His problem is the reverse of Rayner’s, he does not currently have a seat in Westminster. The offer from MP Clive Lewis to hand over Norwich South is unlikely to gain the approval of Labour HQ.
A Budget, a Crisis, and the Influence Behind the Scenes
All this internal manoeuvring is unfolding as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver what many in Westminster are describing as one of the most consequential Budgets in decades. Had she proceeded with her original consideration of a significant rise in income tax, many MPs believe both she and Starmer would have been forced out within weeks.
Instead, the leaks suggest a package built around freezing income tax thresholds and introducing a mansion tax, a proposal long championed by Treasury Minister Torsten Bell since his days working for Ed Miliband. Some Labour MPs, according to the Mail, now describe Reeves as “a ventriloquist’s dummy” with Bell as the real architect of the Budget.
Reeves is acutely aware that Labour’s political fortunes depend on easing the cost of living. Yesterday she announced a freeze on regulated rail fares, saying the move would,
“ease the pressure on household finances and make travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that much easier.”
Inside No 10, tensions appear to be simmering. Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney has reportedly been holding meetings with MPs to calm nerves, but one told the Mail,
“They are not going well. McSweeney is in denial. He just keeps trotting out this script about how this is just a short term problem and things are going to start to turn round.”
The old Blairite circle, including Jonathan Powell, Tom Allen, Tom Baldwin and Alastair Campbell, is said to be quietly assessing Starmer’s future. Even David Miliband has reportedly indicated he “wants to come back and help”, with one MP saying he believes “this is as bad as it gets”.
Rayner’s Next Move
Rayner’s allies remain adamant that she is not planning a southern escape. They stress that Labour Party rules require sitting MPs to seek reselection in their current constituencies before applying elsewhere, although supporters of Wes Streeting have already suggested relaxing that rule for him.
Whether Rayner ultimately stays to defend Ashton under Lyne or seeks safer ground, one thing is clear, her £800,000 flat in Hove has become far more than a personal purchase. It has become a symbol of the broader, urgent question now consuming Labour, who will still be standing when the next political earthquake hits.
If the polling proves even half accurate, the next election could reshape British politics on a scale not seen in generations. And in that transformed landscape, Angela Rayner’s fight to remain in Parliament may be only the opening act in the next contest for the leadership of the Labour Party.
By Jack Lions
